Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008074 0.009110 0.010246 0.011586 0.013126 0.014845 0.016915
2024-10-20 0.006183 0.007521 0.009115 0.011167 0.013755 0.016932 0.021159
2024-10-27 0.005184 0.006619 0.008427 0.010893 0.014203 0.018538 0.024726
2024-11-03 0.004596 0.006104 0.008091 0.010934 0.014955 0.020520 0.028955
2024-11-10 0.004284 0.005892 0.008095 0.011387 0.016267 0.023371 0.034759
2024-11-17 0.003847 0.005444 0.007708 0.011213 0.016621 0.024842 0.038670
2024-11-24 0.003544 0.005150 0.007496 0.011253 0.017271 0.026800 0.043585
2024-12-01 0.003221 0.004789 0.007142 0.011023 0.017447 0.027997 0.047372
2024-12-08 0.003050 0.004640 0.007090 0.011252 0.018379 0.030528 0.053819
2024-12-15 0.002847 0.004421 0.006903 0.011235 0.018880 0.032365 0.059256
2024-12-22 0.002574 0.004065 0.006464 0.010744 0.018495 0.032564 0.061586
2024-12-29 0.002412 0.003877 0.006283 0.010678 0.018855 0.034158 0.066889
2025-01-05 0.002366 0.003882 0.006438 0.011239 0.020470 0.038406 0.078522
2025-01-12 0.002162 0.003605 0.006083 0.010840 0.020220 0.038979 0.082424
2025-01-19 0.002001 0.003389 0.005816 0.010575 0.020194 0.039992 0.087468
2025-01-26 0.001900 0.003271 0.005715 0.010614 0.020784 0.042367 0.096103
2025-02-02 0.001862 0.003263 0.005813 0.011052 0.022249 0.046835 0.110679
2025-02-09 0.001749 0.003106 0.005620 0.010884 0.022396 0.048369 0.118129
2025-02-16 0.001670 0.003010 0.005532 0.010923 0.023000 0.051038 0.129094
2025-02-23 0.001568 0.002861 0.005330 0.010700 0.022982 0.052212 0.136176
2025-03-02 0.001523 0.002818 0.005336 0.010922 0.024018 0.056118 0.151856
2025-03-09 0.001456 0.002727 0.005237 0.010905 0.024485 0.058652 0.164034
2025-03-16 0.001348 0.002549 0.004945 0.010431 0.023787 0.058062 0.166498